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3/9/13

Jobs Report Another Positive Data Point


Jobs, jobs jobs: February nonfarm payrollsat 236,000, well above estimates of 155,000, private sector job growth at 246,000 well above estimates of 175,000;unemployment rate down to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent. Average workweek increased to 34.5 hours, from 34.4.

Futures, after a brief pop, went back to a modest 2-point gain; the usual concerns that the data are so good the Federal Reserve may stop easing, but Standard & Poor's Alec Young, on our air, said it was a Goldilocks number: Strong enough to get the attention of the markets, but not strong enough to cause the Fed to stop purchases.
The dollar rallied BIG, and is now at a seven-month high.
In addition, lots of talk about the Reuters story saying the Fed is actively considering a plan to keep all the bonds they bought, simply allowing the trillions of dollars of securities they have bought to mature. This would put less downward pressure on bond prices and would only add about a year to the process of return the Fed's balance sheet to its normal size of $1 trillion, from the roughly $3 trillion it has now.
Bottom line: Economic reports, with a few exceptions, have been improving: consumer confidence, Chicago PMI, and ISM manufacturing. Initial jobless claims have also been trending lower.
Elsewhere:
1) Another day, another move up. Asia up across the board. (Japan's fourth-quarter gross domestic product data were revised upwards, showing growth of 0.2 percent, yen drops, Nikkei up 2.6 percent to its highest close since September 2008). Europe strong (Italy and Spain both up more than one percent)
2) Stress tests: Seventeen of the 18 biggest banks passed, including Bank of America and Citigroup, the two biggest banks in the country ... only Ally Financialdid not. 
Dividends/buybacks coming: Citigroup has already filed a request to repurchase $1.2 billion in stock for the year; surprisingly, it did say it would seek a dividend increase, which will remain at $0.04 a year.
Why? It might be thinking that even increasing the dividend significantly to, say, $0.25 a year would not make much difference with a stock at $45 (it would still be only an 0.6 percent yield).
More likely to raise dividend: JPMorgan Chase ($1.20/year, 2.4 percent yield), will likely go up. as will Wells Fargo ($1.00), but some talk that Capital One Financialmay initiate a significant raise, from $0.20 a year to perhaps $1.00 or more. But remember: These numbers are still small when considering prior payouts. Capital One, for example, payed $1.50 a share going back to 2008.
3) Texas Instruments raised the low end of prior guidance: Its mid-quarter update, out last night, was surprisingly positive, noting bookings rebounding and backlogs building. 
4) Strong week for global indices:
This Week:
S&P 500 1.72%
Japan 5.84% (Four-year high)
Spain 4.48%
Germany 3.71% (Five-year high)
Brazil 3.23%
China -1.73%
By CNBC's Bob Pisani

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