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7/23/11

ConocoPhillips Split Gives Upside To $75 Stock Value?


ConocoPhillips has announced that it will be separating its upstream exploration and production business and its downstream refining and marketing business into two independent publicly traded corporations. The breakup will be effected through a tax-free spin of the refining and marketing business to ConocoPhillips shareholders and is expected to be completed in the first half of 2012.

Conoco Chairman and CEO Jim Mulva commented that he expected the two independent companies to be better able to focus on their respective businesses by following separate business strategies. ConocoPhillips competes with other vertically oil majors such as BP,Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell.
We have a $75.20 price estimate for ConocoPhillips, which is roughly in-line with its market price.
Refinery Spinoff Lets Conoco Focus on E&P
Taking a step away from the vertically integrated strategy of oil supermajors, Marathon oil announced a similar split in January this year. The company’s stock price has jumped over 40% since the event.
Vertically integrated oil majors combine drilling, transportation, refining and marketing functions of the petroleum supply chain. Refining is seen as being more cyclical than exploration and production (E&P) activity and the industry is presently in an upswing. According to Bloomberg, the ‘crack spread’ – the difference between the cost of crude oil and the selling price its derivatives, is now at its highest point in at least 25 years.
While obvious synergies exist between upstream and downstream activities, the two businesses are driven by different factors. Generally, higher oil prices boost the upstream business while making it difficult for refineries to push their end products to customers. Splitting up the two businesses is expected to help ConocoPhillips focus on better capital allocation for its E&P activity which generates more consistent returns. The stock market has already reacted to the news of the split positively.
We estimate that upstream activity of the company including its crude oil and natural gas liquids business, oil and natural gas trading and other operations, natural gas business and synthetic oil and bitumen business to contribute to around 43% of the company’s current market price. Equity affiliates and chemicals and emerging businesses contribute to just under 5% of the stock price, and the company earns the rest of its value from its downstream operations.
Will other oil majors follow ConocoPhillips?
Despite other players taking the lead in spinning off the refining business and the emergence of independent players in refining, storage and transportation, Exxon Mobil and Chevron maintain that their downstream operations are an integral part of their business proposition. In contrast, BP exited 10 refineries in the past 10 years and plans to sell a couple more in the future. Royal Dutch Shell has also sold assets in the refining business in Europe because of overcapacity in the industry and plans to close another such facility in Australia

Source: forbes.com
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1 comments:

salmonslayer said...

WILD ALASKAN SALMON ,COD AND HALIBUT!

Monday, July 11, 2011wild Alaska salmon , cod and Halibut
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