Fuel Up, Air & Cement Issuer subject to Negative Sentiment?

Jakarta - Investors are still wary of stocks will rise in fuel price subsidy plan. Because the chances of some issuers growth will be retarded due to rising fuel prices.


Two of the most influential sector of the issuer's airlines and cement industries. According to the Head of Research Edwin Sebayang MNC Securities, PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk (GIAA) will be hit hardest will be the fuel price hike.
GIAA policy not to hedge (hedging) fuel, making the company's operating costs will swell. This finally brings pessimism of investors who have portfolios of Garuda.
"The airline industry, especially Garuda is not hedging. In (frequency) of high flight, then the cost will go up," said Edwin.However, for issuers who do anticipate that right, as well as PT Indo Tambangraya (ITMG), were deemed worthy of collection.
"ITMG at the beginning he had anticipated cost of fuel rose 20%, by doing headging," he added.
Issuers of cement, PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR), PT Indocement Tunggal Tbk (INTP), and PT Holcim Indonesia Tbk (SMCB), predicted to be vulnerable to fuel price increases next April.Because, in addition to the distribution factor, in producing cement issuers are also still dependent Dapa fuel.
"Cement Company's majority in Java, and they are still a lot of fuel use," said analyst Universal Securities Broker, Satrio Utomo told reporters.
But in general, the performance of the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) will likely not affected by the planned increase in fuel Rp 1,500 to Rp 6.000/liter. Looked historical factors, current fuel adjustment would increase the rate up JCI.
"Fuel rises, not necessarily the JCI dropped. More so, fuel the trend reversed. We pull from the 2003 and 2005, CSPI even be rising. Yet when it happens two times increase in oil prices," he said.
But ideally limit the increase in fuel is Rp 1,500. If more than that, chances are the stock market will shake. "Market prepare. But our fears rise as high as 40%. That was bigger than analysts predicted," he said.
"Worried, sentiment will negatid. If so, then the analyst will adjust (adapt) to the above inflation. Valuation to be down, and the man shaky. If the $ 6,000 market is still ready, if above $ 6500 is not ready," said Satrio.
With the emergence of discourse rise in fuel prices, analysts predicted would JCI until the end of the year was not seoptimistis at the end of 2012. Edwin predicting stock index closed at 4500 at the end of this year, with a range of BI rate is 5.5% -6% and inflation of 5% -5.5%.
source: http://finance.detik.com
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